文章摘要
董旭婷,汪啸虎,盛永红,王国平,谷婷.基于列线图建立和验证糖尿病视网膜病变患者失能风险预测模型[J].济宁医学院学报,2024,47(2):98-104
基于列线图建立和验证糖尿病视网膜病变患者失能风险预测模型
To establish and validate the disability risk prediction model of diabetic retinopathy patients based on the graph
投稿时间:2023-05-26  
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-9760.2024.02.005
中文关键词: 糖尿病视网膜病变;失能;风险;预测模型
英文关键词: Diabetic Retinopathy;Incapacitated;Risk;Prediction model
基金项目:2022年安徽省高等学校自然科学研究项目(2022AH052639)
作者单位
董旭婷 安徽中医药高等专科学校基础护理教研室, 芜湖 241001 
汪啸虎 芜湖市眼科医院一病区, 芜湖 241001 
盛永红 芜湖市眼科医院一病区, 芜湖 241001 
王国平 芜湖市眼科医院一病区, 芜湖 241001 
谷婷 芜湖市眼科医院一病区, 芜湖 241001 
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中文摘要:
      目的 构建糖尿病视网膜病变(Diabetic Retinopathy,DR)患者失能风险预测模型,并对该模型的预测效果进行验证。方法 便利选取2022年6月至2023年3月安徽省某三级眼科医院就诊的483例患者作为研究对象,按7∶3比例随机分为训练集(333例)和验证集(143例),根据是否失能,将训练集分为失能组(111例)和未失能组(222例)。通过二元logistic回归分析构建失能风险预测模型,利用Hosmer-Lemeshow检验和ROC曲线对模型进行验证,并绘制列线图。结果 DR患者失能发生率为33.33 %。DR分期(OR=0.168)、定期眼年检(OR=0.340)、疾病感知(OR=1.059)、抑郁(OR=1.083)、健康促进行为(OR=0.976)、症状与视功能(OR=0.951)、婚姻状况(OR=0.398)、年龄(OR=2.343)是DR患者失能风险的影响因素(P<0.05)。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验中χ2=9.563,P=0.297,ROC曲线下面积为0.845(95 %CI:0.804~0.886),约登指数最大值为0.554,灵敏度为0.910,特异度为0.644,验证结果显示,Hosmer-Lemeshow检验中χ2=5.575,P=0.695,ROC曲线下面积为0.877(95 %CI:0.819~0.935),约登指数最大值为0.589,灵敏度为0.738,特异度为0.851,正确率为95.80 %。结论 该模型预测糖尿病视网膜病变患者失能风险效果良好,可为识别糖尿病视网膜病变高危失能患者提供依据。
英文摘要:
      Objective To establish a predictive model of disability risk in patients with diabetic retinopathy,and to verify the predictive effect of the model.Methods A total of 476 patients admitted to a grade-Ⅲ eye hospital in Anhui Province from June 2022 to March 2023 were selected as study subjects.The patients were randomly divided into a training set (333 cases) and a validation set (143 cases) in a 7:3 ratio.According to disability,the training set was divided into a disabled group (111 cases) and a non-disabled group (222 cases).The disability risk prediction model was constructed by binary Logistic regression analysis.Hosmer-Lemeshow test and ROC curve were used to verify the model,and a column graph was drawn. Results The incidence of disability in diabetic retinopathy was 33.33 %.DR Stage (OR=0.168),periodic annual eye examination (OR=0.340),disease perception (OR=1.059),depression (OR=1.083),health promoting behaviors (OR=0.976),symptoms and visual function (OR=0.951),marital status (OR=0.398),age (OR=2.343) are influential factors in the risk of disability in DR Patients (P<0.05).In Hosmer-Lemeshow test,χ2=9.563,P=0.297,the area under ROC curve was 0.845 (95 %CI:0.804~0.886),the maximum Yoden index was 0.554,the sensitivity was 0.910,and the specificity was 0.644.The verification results showed that In Hosmer-Lemeshow test,χ2=5.575,P=0.695,the area under ROC curve was 0.877 (95 %CI:0.819~0.935),the maximum Yoden index was 0.589,the sensitivity was 0.738,the specificity was 0.851,and the accuracy was 95.80 %.Conclusion This model is effective in predicting the risk of disability in diabetic retinopathy patients,and can provide evidence for the identification of diabetic retinopathy patients with high risk of disability.Key words:Diabetic Retinopathy;Incapacitated;Risk;Prediction model
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