| 刘艳丽,姚杰,方婷,吕海玲,张璟.济宁市大气细颗粒物对肺结核发病影响的病例交叉研究[J].济宁医学院学报,2021,44(3):158-162 |
| 济宁市大气细颗粒物对肺结核发病影响的病例交叉研究 |
| A case-crossover study on the impact of atmospheric fine particles on the incidence of tuberculosis in Jining city |
| 投稿时间：2021-03-09 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-9760.2021.03.002 |
| 中文关键词: 肺结核;大气细颗粒物;病例交叉研究 |
| 英文关键词: Tuberculosis;PM2.5;Case-crossover study |
| 基金项目:山东省高等学校科技计划项目（J16LD53） |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 刘艳丽 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院, 济宁 272013
兰州大学公共卫生学院, 兰州 730000 | | | 姚杰 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院, 济宁 272013 | | | 方婷 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院, 济宁 272013 | | | 吕海玲 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院, 济宁 272013 | | | 张璟 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院, 济宁 272013 | zhangj1976@163.com |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 探讨济宁市大气细颗粒物（PM2.5）的浓度变化对肺结核新发病例数的影响，为肺结核的防控与防疫提供参考依据。方法 搜集济宁市2014-2018年每日PM2.5数据及肺结核新发病例数，采用R软件进行PM2.5对肺结核新发病例数发病影响的时间序列病例交叉分析，计算相对危险度（RR）。结果 2014-2018年济宁市PM2.5浓度呈现明显的季节变化趋势和逐年降低趋势，冬季（11~2月）较高，夏季（6~8月）较低。肺结核的新发病例数也呈现季节趋势和逐年降低的趋势，发病高峰集中在冬春季。60d滞后时，随着PM2.5浓度升高肺结核发病风险增大，30d、90d呈现随PM2.5浓度升高发病风险先上升后缓慢下降的趋势。60d滞后时，PM2.5中等浓度组男性和女性肺结核发病RR分别为1.38（95% CI：1.05~1.82）和1.23（95% CI：0.90~1.70），高浓度组分别为1.47（95% CI：1.04~2.08）和1.41（95% CI：0.93~2.13）。结论 PM2.5浓度升高可以增加肺结核的发病风险，应根据其在不同人群的作用特点和作用强度，制定合理有效的疫情防控政策和措施。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective It aims to study the effects of concentration changes of atmospheric fine particles (PM2.5) on the number of new tuberculosis cases in Jining city to provide a reliable basis for relevant prevention and control measures.Methods Daily PM2.5 concentration and daily new tuberculosis cases were collected in Jining City from 2014 to 2018,and R software was used to carry out time series case-crossover analysis of the impact of PM2.5 on the incidence of tuberculosis new cases to calculate the relative risk (RR).Results During 2014 to 2018,the monthly average concentrations of PM2.5 in Jining City showed obvious seasonal trends and yearly downward trend,which was higher in winter (November-February) and lower in summer (June-August).The changes of tuberculosist also showed a more obvious seasonality and yearly decreasing trend.Under the 60d exposure period,with the increase of PM2.5 concentration,the risk of tuberculosis increased.Under the 30d and 90d exposure,the risk of tuberculosis showed a trend of increasing first and then slowly decreasing with the increase of PM2.5 concentration.With the 60d lag,the RR for the incidence of tuberculosis in men and women in the PM2.5 medium concentration group were 1.38 (95%CI:1.05-1.82) and 1.23 (95%CI:0.90-1.70),respectively,and that in the high concentration group were 1.47 (95%CI:1.04-2.08) and 1.41 (95%CI:0.93-2.13).Conclusion Increased PM2.5 concentration can increase the risk of pulmonary tuberculosis.Reasonable and effective epidemic prevention and control policies and measures should be formulated according to the characteristics and intensity of its role in different populations. |
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