| 张璟,王文军,张春菊.泰安市日平均气温对居民死亡数的滞后影响分析[J].济宁医学院学报,2015,(6):381-388 |
| 泰安市日平均气温对居民死亡数的滞后影响分析 |
| Distributed lag effects in the relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality in Taian |
| 投稿时间：2015-11-15 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1000-9760.2015.06.001 |
| 中文关键词: 气温|非意外死亡|分布滞后非线性模型 |
| 英文关键词: Temperature|Non-accidental death|Distributed lag nonlinear model |
| 基金项目:山东省自然科学基金资助项目(编号:ZR2014HL092) |
| 作者 | 单位 | | 张璟 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院, 山东济宁, 272067 | | 王文军 | 济宁医学院公共卫生学院, 山东济宁, 272067 | | 张春菊 | 泰安市疾病预防控制中心, 山东泰安, 271000 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 目的 了解泰安市日平均气温对不同性别、不同年龄居民每日非意外死亡的影响。方法 根据泰安市2009年1月1日至2013年12月31日每日居民死亡资料和同期气相指标及大气污染指标,采用分布滞后非线性模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势和其他混杂因素后,研究日平均气温与不同性别、不同年龄死亡数之间的关系。结果 泰安市日平均气温对不同性别、不同年龄人群死亡效应曲线均为J形,冷效应具有延迟性,在暴露当天出现,3 d左右达到最高,持续30 d。热效应表现为急性效应,以当天最高,后逐渐降低,在女性及老年人中呈现出明显的收获效应。结论 高温和寒冷均是泰安市居民每日死亡的危险因素,存在滞后效应,且低温效应的滞后时间长于高温。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Objective To study the impact of daily mean temperature on mortality in different genders and different age groups in Taian.Methods According to daily mortality,meteorological and air pollution data,we used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to assess the effects of daily mean temperature on mortality (non-accidental for male,female,<65 years group and ≥ 65 years group) adjusting for the secular trend,seasonal trend and other confounders.Results A J-shaped relationship was found consistently between daily mean temperature and non-accidental deaths in different genders and different age groups in Taian.Cold effects were delayed,occurred following exposure,reached highest at about 3 days and persisted for 30 days.Hot effects were acute and highest at 1st day and reduced gradually,which were followed by mortality displacement in female and ≥ 65 years group.Conclusion In Taian,cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality with delayed effects.The effects of cold lasted longer than the effects of heat. |
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